Every now and then I take a look at what the actual numbers are saying for the major areas that I work in. That is N. Fulton, Suwanee, Duluth and S. Forsyth. So much of the time when one asks an agent what they are experiencing in the market, the responses depend very much on their limited sphere of influence. And then there are always the pessimists, and the folks who have never seen a down market.
So, to the numbers I go.
The statistics always show a trend, except of course when there is a major correction in interest rates, and then there are major spikes or dips in the sales of residences.
Well, here are some numbers from which I draw some conclusions, which may, or may not be as you see them. The stats come from "Market Trends", an excellent source for this type of information.
The time period that I will be looking at starts with November 2015 and runs through October 2016.
Home sales over the last 12 months spiked in June of 2016, when sales were 5.3% higher than the same month in 2015. The % increase stated is not in revenue, but rather the number of units sold, so that eliminates the increases we have seen in home prices.
Monthly sales of homes from December last year (2015), through the month of June 2016, each had a significant increase over the corresponding month for the year prior, with the two higher months being March 2016 at a 14% increase over the previous March, and May at 13.9%.
And then something odd happened.
From July 2016 through October 2016, there were declines in the number of homes sold over the same period last year, and yet, interest rates were steady around 3.75% for the whole period. What this is all about, is anyone's guess. Perhaps it was the preoccupation with the election, or a hidden downturn in the economy?
To give this a little perspective, in June of 2016, we sold and closed on 7,380 homes, and in October of 2016, we sold and closed on 5,038.
That's a decrease of 32%.
Now that interest rates have spiked up this week, it's going to be interesting to see whether they flush out homebuyers who were sitting on the fence, waiting for better days, or whether the increased interest rates have put some buyers out of reach of buying that home. And while the spike was almost immediate, what will happen if this is the beginning of a long term increase in rates?
Time to buy, methinks!